Israel under attack! What does it mean for Canada?

On Saturday HAMAS has launched an massive attack into Israel from the Gaza strip, overwhelming the Iron Dome defense system with thousands of rockets, infiltrating deep into Israeli territory, inflicting casualties on Israeli civilians and soldiers, as well as taking hundreds of people prisoners. How could this happen, what’s going to happen next, and what does it mean for us here in Canada?

HOW IT HAPPENED

A HAMAS attack on Israel doesn’t seem like much of a surprise to people of the situation in Israel. Since it has been founded in the middle of 20th century, Israel has constantly been facing hostility from it’s Muslim-majority neighbours, as well as from disgruntled Palestinian insurgents who claim to have been victims of human rights abuses as Israeli government sought to re-settle the land and establish the world’s only Jewish-majority nation state. The land itself has great importance to all three of the major Abrahamic faiths, and historically has been the subject of many wars and much bloodshed, as the land changed ownership back and fort between Muslims and Christians and now to Jewish people once again. So it’s not really surprising that HAMAS is attacking Israel, as disgruntled Palestinian insurgents and their supportive neighbours periodically launch rockets and organize guerilla strikes and terrorist attacks. For anyone living in Israel, air raid sirens and seeking bomb shelter is a regular occurrence, and a major reason why so many Israelis choose to immigrate to places like Canada where they can enjoy a much safer and quieter life.

What is surprising about this attack is both the scale, the success of it, and the absolute unpreparedness of the Israeli Defense Forces in anticipating and repelling the strikes, as it is unprecedented. Israeli intelligence agencies are renowned as some of the most effective on the planet, and their military and security forces are experienced and hardened in foiling terror plots, and are constantly vigilant for any attack from within or without. Which makes perfect sense, since Israel is constantly under attack and has to fight for it’s continued existence. How then did HAMAS manage to prepare and launch an attack without Israelis knowing it’s coming, and how is it that the IDF failed to mount a rapid response?

One of the main reasons is the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The conflict has the international spotlight, and due to the support and backing of Ukraine by NATO countries and their allies, it threatens to grow from a regional conflict into a much larger war, and possibly spiral into World War 3. Since the conflict in Ukraine is so important, it makes sense that even countries that are not directly involved, monitor the situation and are prepared to react should the conflict grow – enough that they can. Not only that, but the continued support of Ukraine by its’ allies, including Israel, has been depleting the munitions stores of the host countries. Not only that but Israel has been backing and supplying Azerbaijan in the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict. So it’s no surprise after all that their munitions and military tech is depleted, and they have become vulnerable to an attack.

Another important factor to how such an attack could happen is again due to the Ukrainian conflict. It’s been noted many times before that arms sent to Ukraine end up on the black market due to rampant corruption within the post-Soviet system. And HAMAS has officially confirmed that it managed to acquire many of it’s weapons from Ukraine (and subsequently, from the countries supplying Ukraine, including USA and ironically enough, Israel itself). Israeli intelligence agencies underestimating how well equipped or how easily HAMAS can get high quality munitions and equipment can certainly be a factor in being unready for an attack. It’s possible that Israelis knew that something was being prepared, but expected an attack to either come later or not as big.

Final point, again due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The conflict has an unprecedented amount of footage freely available of ordinary people to see military tactics unfold. Which gives anyone access and ability to evaluate combat performance of certain tactics, vehicles and equipment, and come up with possible new strategies. The war in Ukraine itself has been a testing ground for new methods of war, including the use of drones to deliver explosives, and effective use of kamikaze drones. Israeli Defense Force being a conventional force, it takes a certain amount of time before new tactics are tested, and troops trained en masse and provided with new equipment to carry them out. HAMAS being an insurgent force, they have a much more flexible system and they are more free to try out new tactics and adopt newest strategies.

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NOW?

While Israel is scrambling to mount a defense and a response, HAMAS is striking targets, occupying territory in Israel, and capturing prisoners and hostages. The last part is important. HAMAS has been trying to lure IDF into a full on counter-invasion of the Gaza strip for decades now. As seen from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict particularly the Russian siege of Mariupol, densely urbanized heavily defended areas are an absolute nightmare of a slog for the attacker to get through. The attackers will be going through the area constantly facing attacks from every directions – including from above, and from below – basements, tunnels, underground parking lots, all provide ample room for defenders to maneuver, set up ambushes and IED/mines, and retreat before the any has a chance to strike back. You might ask – why fight when you can just use artillery to flatten the area and reduce it to ruble? First of all, as mentioned before, this attack has been timed when Israeli munitions stockpiles have been depleted. But also, this is why prisoners and hostages are a key part of this strategy. If the opposition decides that the cost of civilian and prisoner life is too much, they will have to be careful with their assault. If they decide to take a “no negotiations with terrorist” route and indiscriminately fire upon HAMAS fighters hiding behind prisoners and hostage – it will be greatly demoralizing to the IDF personnel, but is also likely to draw criticism of the people in charge internally and internationally.

Not only that, but Israel has many enemies among its neighbours who might decide that now would be a great time to mount their own offensive – or they have been collaborating with HAMAS and are ready to invade sometime soon, when IDF shift their weight away from their borders.

Either way, it is unlikely that the conflict will die down quickly anytime soon.

HOW DOES IT AFFECT US?

Even though the conflict is halfway across the world from North America, similar to the invasion of Ukraine, it’s still going to affect us in various different ways.

One of the more obvious ways this is going to affect world politics is that we can expect to see the aid sent to Ukraine redirected to go to support Israel. United States has already announced that it will redirect the 8 billion dollar aid package meant for Ukraine to Israel, and sent a group of aircraft carriers into the area. If the conflict intensifies and more of Israel’s neighbours decide to join the incursion, we can expect to see our troops sent there for support as well. This does mean that Canada will continue to spend money it doesn’t have on a conflict halfway across the world though – and as prices continue to soar, we can expect our economy to worsen as a result.

We can also expect to see a much sooner end to the Ukrainian conflict if the aid it currently receives is redirected to Israel. A peace on Russia’s terms is still peace, but if the international spotlight is on Israel, Russia might consider continuing it’s expansionist policy and throw it’s weight around it’s southern border, either through direct invasion or by supporting insurgent groups or fixing elections in Georgia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, as they have been drifting away from Russia’s post-soviet influence. Likewise, its entirely possible for China to decide on a military course of action regarding the situation in Taiwan if United States and it’s allies become tied up in conflict in Israel. Overall, the crisis in Israel benefits Russia and its allies.

A more troubling development as a result of this war is the confirmation that arms sent to Ukraine end up in the hands of terrorist organizations and drug cartels. While it’s unlikely that they will find their way back into United States and consequently Canada, this is a major problem for Europe and the Middle East and Mediterranean. Any form of Israeli counter measures will result in civilian casualties – that’s just the nature of modern warfare and use of artillery and rockets. As a result, more Muslims across the world will become radicalized, and willing to strike not just at Israel, but also it’s supporters. We expect to see an increase in terrorist activity in Europe, and a high threat of it in North America.

All in all, even though the crisis in Israel is far away, we can expect for it to have real lasting effects on us here in Canada. You can also express your support for either side in the conflict, or maybe you think we have no business becoming involved at all – either way, we have stickers you can buy to express your opinion: